Well guys summer is nearly over which means the most important thing - Football is nearly here! The NFL is heading into week #3 of it's pre-season action, with the regular season slated to begin on Thursday, Sept. 5th with Baltimore traveling to Denver. Then the full slate of Sunday games on September 8th.
On the college side of things everything gets going on Thursday, August 28th with 8 games, then 3 on Friday the 29th, then wall to wall action on Saturday, August 30th!
So what is the best way to get prepared for the season?
#1. Bankroll and Money Management
Year in and year out the NUMBER #1 most important consideration that you should be thinking about. The Fazzer Sports philosophy is simple, straightforward, and allows you to get your money in when you have the "best of it", and protect it when you don't!
Bankroll - Have money set aside for betting and betting only, PERIOD! Do not "bet from the pocket". Understand what you have to work with, and how you are going to make that money grow throughout the course of the season.
Example: You have $5000 at the start of the season, spread out over 3-4 books, looking to make 30% ROI on your money in the next 4 months, or $1500 profit.
Bet Size - I use a spread between 2-4% of current bankroll, calculated weekly.
2 weight - Normal sized wager ($5000 bankroll = 2% would be $100)
3 weight - Best bet type wager ($5000 bankroll = 3% would be $150)
4 weight- Very rare, huge edge type wagers ($5000 bankroll = 4% would be $200)
I would estimate that around 80% of my plays are 2 weight, 20% are 3 weight, and the 4 weight plays are very rare, only a handful of times a year.
#2. Getting Good Information
So now you have to bet some games. Are you going to be an originator, a follower, or a combination of both? All methods work, and can make you money.
1. Originator: Someone who comes up with their own power rankings, point spreads, numbers for all the games, and makes selections based on when their numbers vary from the bookmakers.
2. Follower: A follower takes the information from a respected handicapper or bettor, and uses it to get the best number available for that game.
3. Combination: This is the category that I recommend. Focus on a specific sport or ideally conference within that sport, and become an expert handicapper in that area. Then search out other proven winning handicappers and bettors who's information you can obtain (paid or otherwise), and bet those games getting the best possible number that you can. (ie, still trying to "beat" the closing number).
Getting Good Information
Information is key, I will be adding to this list throughout the season.
Pregame.com - Free signup, Free $50, Free Live Odds.
FazzerSportsPicks - If you are looking to purchase plays start here.
Twitter: Follow me @fazzersports
NFL Best Bets, RJ Bell, Colin Cowherd, Steve Fezzik, Scott Spreitzer, Marco D'Angelo, Sports Insights
Guys NFL week #9 is upon us, how time flies!
Now 21-11 ATS in the NFL I continue to grind out winners over at the Club.
As always, I encourage you to check out some of the best free information available anywhere on the Internet below. More times than not, these audios and information will help get you on the RIGHT side. Good luck this Sunday, now go get the CASH!!!
Pregame.com's RJ Bell discusses 5 NFL picks this week with ESPN's Colin Cowherd. On the season these picks are a rock solid 18-5 ATS when RJ Bell's Wiseguys agree with Colin!
Taped on Thursday evening, Pregame.com's Scott Spreitzer and Marco D'Angelo discuss a host of college and pro football games for this weekend. Also included is RJ Bell's weekly discussion with Steve Fezzik as they analyze this week's NFL card. (17:30 mark)
Free 1 week Trial to Sports Insights!
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Get $50 free from guys like Scott Spreitzer, Marco D'Angelo, Vegas Runner, and More!
Best Bet Information for NFL Week #3 from 2 time Hilton Contest winner Steve Fezzik.
Pregame.com's RJ Bell discusses what the "wiseguys" are betting in Las Vegas with ESPN's Colin Cowherd.
AHHHHH another year is a goner and another is here....here is what is on tap this year
here at Fazzer Sports
3 SIMPLE GOALS for 2012
1. Continue to provide the best resources available today for those people who are interested in treating their betting like a business. When I speak of "betting like a business", I mean that at the end of the year you are able to show a profit. Not everyone has the time and resources to do this full time, but with some education and discipline a return of 10-20% percent on your money is very attainable.
2. Promote the Sports Bettor's Club and its weekly best bets. The goal is simple: provide 50 to 100 plays for the year with a goal of 55% against the spread. These plays are basically a weekly consensus from all the information that i acquire throughout the week, and can be used as a reliable source for your weekly betting "portfolio".
3. Help people interested in other forms of investment markets and business. Markets are markets...it doesn't matter whether you are involved in stocks or sports, there are many similarities between the two. Are you Interested in starting your own coffee table business and grow it to something big? How about starting your own Corporation, website, investment club, or becoming a lender and earn monthly interest payments? The options are endless......
Its time to bet like a business, and "live your business" in 2012!
Are you ready....
I have said it many times before: getting good information, and getting the best of the number are two absolute keys if you plan on having long term success betting sports. Below are 4 great resources that I use on a daily basis to get the information needed to win, and to help get the best of the number.
1. WeCoverSpreads.com: Professional east coast bettor Chris Torrisi has a great website with tons of free analysis and information. He has a weekly blog, podcast, and daily videos which breakdown the betting market, as well as discussions on specific games from a variety of fundamental and situational standpoints. Stop by the site daily to see where the money is moving on specific games and insights from Chris. He also has a variety of affordable service packages to consider as well.
2. Pregame.com: A true "community based" sports betting Las Vegas website with tons of weekly free videos, podcasts, forum discussions, and much, much more. Weekly videos from a host of hand selected Las Vegas pros analyze games from a variety of angles. If you are interested in purchasing a service, Pregame has a $50 coupon just for signing up, definitely worth a look.
3. SportsInsights.com: A line service with a ton of tools to help your betting. They focus on a "contrarian style" of betting (ie. betting against the public), with years of data to back up their success. You can try their service free for 7 days, as well as sign up for their free "Market Watch" newsletter which alone will put you in the winners circle more times than not.
4. FazzerSports.com: I am always searching for the best information available to pass along to the visitors of Fazzer Sports. Sign up for my free newsletter that goes out at least once a week. The difference between long term winning and losing can be very small - if there is a resource out there that can help....I will get it and pass it along to the loyal visitors of my site!
One of the absolute biggest problems with recreational players, or guys who want to act like a pro but who are really just weekend warriors is the OVER analysis of short term results, and the UNDER analysis of long term results. Just like the financial markets, anything can and will happen in the term. By short time I mean on any given day, week, or even month.
The mindset should rather be on the long term, and by that I mean quarterly and yearly results. Just like any publically traded company, it is all about the quarterly and yearly numbers. You should consider your sports betting results in the exact same way.
Now, just like in business, if you are seeing trends that are affecting your results, you will want to review these on a weekly and daily basis to be sure that you can find ways to correct these negative results. In sports betting it could be things like: over betting, having a poor model, utilizing sources that are not winning, betting bad numbers,..etc.
If you start to spot these trends happening, be sure to recognize them, and figure out ways to not let them happen going forward.
And lastly, dont be under capitalized. Look, you are aiming for gains of 20% percent from your betting portfolio. Trying to turn 1k into 10k is gambling and has nothing to do with anything here at Fazzer Sports.
Treat it like a business and get business type results. Treat it like a hobby and get hobby "losing" type results.
Lets get em!
PS. One of the few sites I recommend here. A good site with tons of FREE info. (And yes, I make a whole dollar when you sign up haha.....so go sign up. Thanks)
I got questioned the other day about bet size and “should I be using Kelly Criterion”
to determine proper bet size?
Kelly Criterion is a formula for determining optimal bet size if you have an accurate understanding of what you “edge” is.
Here is the equation:
F = b x p – q / b
F = fraction of bankroll bet
b = odds paid on the wager (-110 = .91)
p = odds of winning (55% odds would be .55)
q = odds of losing (45% would be .45)
So assuming that you are a 55% handicapper against -110 pointspreads, by plugging the numbers into the equation you will see that you should be betting 5.5% of your bankroll on each play to fully maximize your edge.
This looks good on paper, but the problem that I have found over the years is that:
I use a guide for determining your edge by documenting your last 1000 plays and calculating your win percentage. Over a 1000 game sample you should have a good understanding if your betting model is successful, and to what degree.
As far bankroll size goes lets start with someone who is interested in betting $100 a game. I like to start with a 2% rule regardless of edge. So a $100 bettor should have a bankroll of at least $5,000.
I’m unsure of my edge, how much should I bet?
To truly understand your long term edge, you have to be the sharpest of the sharp. A simple way to manage your bankroll effectively while continuing to develop your betting models is to flat bet with daily resizing.
So with your $5000 bankroll you would start the season betting $100 a game (2%). After each night’s games, based on if you won or lost for the day, simply recalculate 2% of your total bankroll to determine your bet size for the following day.
This strategy will keep you out of trouble in a losing streak and maximize profits when you are winning.
So in summary:
Stay disciplined in your approach and keep learning….Fazzer.