In lessson #2 we tackle what the proper bet size should be.
I bet 2% of bankroll per bet, and re-size my bets every week. For Best Bets I bet 3% of bankroll.
For example, if you have $5000 to work with at the start of the season, using this strategy you would be betting $100 per game, (2% of bankroll). If you have a rare Best Bet situation you could increase this to $150 per bet, (3% of bankroll).
Then, at the end of each week run the numbers and adjust your bet size. For example, if your $5,000 bankroll increased to $5500, your 2% bets would now be $110, or if your bankroll falls to $4500, your 2% bets become $90.
Simple and straightforward. You can modify this approach, but this is the foundation of how Fazzer Sports approaches bet sizing.
Kelly Criterion is a equation to determine optimal bet sizing based on what you "edge" is.
The problem is that a large majority of bettors do not accurately calculate what their "edge" is in any given situation.
Is it 54%, 57%, 60%...?
If you overestimate your edge, using the Kelly Criterion can get you in trouble. However, if you truly have the data to support your "edge", using Kelly Criterion will help you to maximize you gains.
So there we go: be consistent, don't over bet, size your bets correctly, and work to properly estimate what your "edge" is!
Now go get the $$$$$!